Post by Steve:
Two Days to go
So all this week the race forecast temperatures have gone up. Right now, the predicted start temp is 72 and the finish temp is 82. The predicted high for the day is right around 90. BAA sent an email today encouraging people NOT to run unless they were highly fit and offered deferrals (non-paid entry for next year - which actually goes back on something they said they wouldn't ever do) to people that don't run. Couple thoughts...
- When it's hot, it's not PR weather. When it's this hot, I don't even think I could make it under 3:00, which is my minimum goal.
- This is going to be an expensive jog since there's no way at this point to get out of hotels, flights, race fee, etc.
- One year off! Last year the weather was absolutely perfect - low 50's with a huge tailwind. It resulted in a course record and the fastest marathon time the world has ever seen. http://www.letsrun.com/2011/bostonweather-0416.php
I spent some time considering my options. Things could change if the forecast changes or if the heat doesn't affect me as much as I think it will, but as of now the plan is:
- Start Boston at 3:00 pace and see how high my HR/effort is.
- If it looks like I won't make it, I'm going to shut it down at the half marathon point and take the commuter rail back downtown.
- If I only end up running 1/2 this weekend, I'll run the full Olathe Marathon next weekend.
I'm good to go for the full next weekend because I only tapered two weeks whereas most people do three. The weather for next weekend looks fairly good at this point - starting in the low 50's and finish in the high 50's/low 60's. I even know another guy my speed running it. If I wait much longer, I'll have to go north and actually travel in order to get something in... which will also be a gamble based on weather. I don't consider that an option. If I wait until fall I have to keep training all summer and then put in a peaking effort again in the fall. I'd sure like to take training down a notch at this point, but a fall marathon is probably my next best option.
I look at the website below for heat adjustment stuff. I don't know if it's quite this bad (for instance, elites don't slow down by this percentage as evidenced by Chicago 2007 and Beijing Olympics in 2008), but I haven't seen anything else I like better yet.
Adjusting Race Pace for Heat: Estimated temperature at finish - Slower than goal pace - 8 min mile becomes...
55-60 degrees - 1% - 8:05
60-65 degrees - 3% - 8:15
65-70 degrees - 5% - 8:25
70-75 degrees - 7% - 8:35
75-80 degrees - 12% - 8:58
80-85 degrees - 20% - 9:35
Above 85 degrees - Forget it... run for fun
* Note: This chart is based upon my own experience in the heat and talking to other runners. It has no scientific verification.
Previous Post
One week to go and I'm feeling good. I started training in mid June to beat Taco in a 5k. After that race (October) I set down a 27 week schedule to get to this point. It's been the longest continual running streak I've ever had.
I had hoped to hit 70 miles per week regularly, but I typically only managed about 60mpw during my big weeks. I also had a long period from September to the end of January without much improvement. Not really sure what happened there. These last 12 weeks have been very solid though and although I don't think I'll reach my initial goal of 2:45, I'm pretty confident I can run a solid time. Based on the workouts I've been doing, I expect to run at 6:35-6:40 pace (~2:53). I'm going to grade the race as follows:
<2:50 - A
2:50-2:55 - B
2:55-3:00 - C
3:00 - Something bad happened!
Keep your fingers crossed for some nice cool weather in the 40's or 50's! And I feel like I need to add - since the forecast just went from cloudy and 63 high to sunny and 75 high.... if the weather at the end of the race is mid 70's temp, you can add just about 10 minutes to all those grades I gave myself above.
Tracking:
The race is next Monday, the 16th.
My bib # is 4135. Or you should be able to search by my name.
I start in the first wave, at 10:00am.
Track me at the baa website:
http://www.baa.org/
A:
The B.A.A. will broadcast every five kilometer split to its website and family and friends can track your progress by logging in and entering your name or bib number. The "face" of the Boston Marathon website will change on race day and the process on how to enter the search will be clear. The AT&T Athlete Alert program allows messages to be automatically delivered to any US mobile phone, a pager, or any email address.
Alerts will be broadcast when your runner crosses the starting line, reaches the 10K, half marathon and 30K marks, and from the finish line. Runners or their family and friends can register in three ways: 1: Via text message or SMS, (after registering, you'll receive a text message confirming how to complete registration). 2: Visiting the AT&T Athlete Alert Sign-Up page at the race website,
http://www.baa.org/, and sign up there
More details for the interested:
I'm going to eat a Gu packet before the race and every 4 miles during the race up until 24 miles. 100 calories / packet, 700 calories total. 25g carbs / packet, so about 75g/hr.
Every month I did a fitness test where I ran at 30bpm less than my maximum HR (185-30=155HR) for 4 miles on my treadmill so it would be consistent and I could see progress or lack thereof. This is my starting the race effort and corresponds to my goal race pace.
| Month | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr |
| Average | 7:00 | 6:53 | 6:53 | 6:56 | 6:49 | 6:43 | 6:33 |